This market covers videos generated by AI from scratch (for instance from a text prompt), not AI transformations of an input video, which have existed for some time now.
The market will resolve positively when a channel on YouTube or Twitch will stream at least 25 hours of realtime AI-generated video in the span of 48 hours.
Traditional procedurally generated videos do not count. There should be consensus in the community that the video is AI-generated. The channel owner should declare it, and no plausible refutation should be published within a week after the broadcast. If the channel owner remains silent, I might resolve the market based on a poll or the comments.
I will most probably notice if any gen-AI channel gets linked on the front page on HN, or gets viral on Twitter, but in case I miss it, please link it in the comment if you come across the channel that fits the description.
I will generally resolve each answer as NO as soon as the respective time period is over, but I will delay the resolution by at least a week in both potential "YES" and "NO" cases in case I miss an existing channel, or if the claim that a stream is AI-generated gets refuted.
I do not bet on my own questions.
Update 2025-07-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For future answers, the resolution process will be updated:
An answer will be resolved to NO immediately after its corresponding time period ends, unless a qualifying channel is linked before the period is over.
This removes the one-week grace period for submitting evidence that was mentioned in the original description.
1,000
3.00Q2 2025 is over. Please comment if you know a channel that fits the description.
For this answer I'll wait for the comments, but for the future answers I'm going to resolve the respective answer as NO as soon as the period that it covers is over, unless someone links the channel that fits the description before the period is over. This makes resolution much more straightforward.
@traders Q3 is over and I'm not aware of any channel that would fit the description. I'll wait for a few more days in case anyone finds one.
@traders I'm about to resolve "Q2 2024" to NO. Please comment if you know any examples that fit the description.
@traders If anyone knows of any AI-generated streams in March that would fit the description, please let me know. Otherwise I'll resolve "Q1 2024" as NO.
@Multicore As the question is written I think it will qualify. Do I understand correctly that the model will be trained on some game, then will start with a single screenshot, and will continuously predict the next frame?
I think this is good enough, provided that a) generation is happening in realtime, is not pre-recorded, b) the footage stays recognizable and doesn't devolve into garbage.
I slightly wish that I added some condition for prominence, like for example that the stream has at least 10 viewers on average, but since I didn't include it in the original statement, I think it might be too late. Oh well, it's always possible to create a new question.
@ProjectVictory Possibly. If the probability for the latest date falls below 50-60%, I’ll add options for later dates.
I think it’s possible that somebody will run a model which would be not as good as Sora, but would still fulfill the requirements.
@OlegEterevsky Sure, I was talking about the current state of bets, the market description and options are perfectly fine.