If China invades Taiwan in 2023-2030, what will FLOP/s per dollar of top-ML GPUs be 10 years later?
Plus
5
Ṁ1352040
8%
<0.5x FLOP/s per dollar
11%
0.5-1x FLOP/s per dollar
11%
1-2x FLOP/s per dollar
24%
2-4x FLOP/s per dollar
18%
4-8x FLOP/s per dollar
29%
>8x FLOP/s per dollar
IE what wil the ratio of top-ML GPU FLOP/s per dollar 10 years after invasion be to top-ML GPU FLOP/s per dollar before invasion.
I'll use the resolution criteria of this Metaculus question to operationalize invasion:
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11480/china-launches-invasion-of-taiwan/?sub-question=10880f
https://epochai.org/blog/trends-in-gpu-price-performance
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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