Conditional on no Doom by 2030, will China have reached GPU parity with the US?
Basic
5
Ṁ1022030
26%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
That is, in 2030, will Chinese chip companies offer commercial/enterprise GPUs for sale flops/$ performance within 20% of peak flops/$ of any commercial/enterprise GPU sold by non-Chinese companies?
Conditioning on no doom, of course.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
Related questions
Related questions
By 2030, will China have reached GPU parity with the US?
51% chance
Will China develop domestic GPU with comparable performance to NVIDIA H100 by 2026?
86% chance
Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2025?
9% chance
By 2030 will China have reached AI flops/$ parity with the US?
37% chance
Will China really surpass US GDP by the 2030s?
34% chance
Conditional on the US introducing AI safety regulations, will China "win the AI race"?
17% chance
If China invades Taiwan in 2023-2030, what will FLOP/s per dollar of top-ML GPUs be 10 years later?
If China invades Taiwan in 2023-2030, what will FLOP/s per dollar of top-ML GPUs be 5 years later?
Will Nvidia still retain over 50% market share of PC gamer GPU usage by 2030
60% chance
Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?
22% chance