Will Kamala Harris be president of the United States before the end of January 2029?
Will Kamala Harris be president of the United States before the end of January 2029?
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This question resolves to "Yes" if Kamala Harris is sworn in as president at any time before February 1, 2029.
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@MP I don't think an oath is required, but I assume one would take place anyway if Biden were to be incapacitated for a long period. The 25th amendment has been used for very brief periods when a President is placed under anesthesia, and there was no oath taken, although the Acting President has never taken any official actions in any of those cases.
@TobiasPace I don't think that should count. It's right in the name, she would be "acting president", not the actual president. We never count people who have been acting presidents in the list of U.S. presidents, nor are they included in the numbering.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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