See https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/06/us/politics/trump-very-big-announcement.html
Unless otherwise implied, a topic here only applies to the announcement itself, and not related future policy. Multiple topics can resolve YES at the same time. Some topics are supersets of others, e.g. "Foreign Policy" and "Tariffs."
An invasion of a foreign nation would resolve "Foreign Policy" and "Military" YES. It would also resolve "Tariffs" YES if that invasion caused new tariffs announced at the same time as the invasion.
If by May 20 Trump makes no announcement that is unambiguously the one he referred to on May 6, market settles YES to "Trump makes no announcement by May 20" and NO to everything dependent on him actually making an announcement. (Announcement doesn't need to be made by Trump himself, just by the administration.)
Another nation joining the Abraham Accords would settle "Gaza/Israel conflict" to YES.
Update 2025-05-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified the resolution criteria for the Gaza/Israel conflict topic:
Any announcement directly involving Israel will cause this topic to resolve to YES.
This includes any announcements concerning the Abraham Accords.
This applies even if the announcement is not directly about the current conflict.
Update 2025-05-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Further clarification on the Gaza/Israel conflict topic, specifically regarding announcements concerning Iran:
An announcement that is primarily policy on Iran will resolve this topic to NO if it does not include substantial mention of Israel.
If an announcement concerning Iran includes substantial mention of Israel, it will be considered directly related to Israel and resolve this topic to YES (in line with the 2025-05-07 update stating that any announcement directly involving Israel resolves this topic to YES).
The resolution will be determined based on the announcement itself, not the magnitude of any indirect effects the policy might have on Israel.
Update 2025-05-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified the relationship between Tariffs and Tax Reform (or a general 'Taxes' topic):
Announcements regarding Tariffs will also be considered relevant for the Tax Reform topic (or a general 'Taxes' topic).
This is because, as confirmed by the creator, the market's rules define taxes to include tariffs.
Update 2025-05-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated their planned process for resolving the market:
Once the creator is confident in identifying the specific announcement referred to in the market question, they will proceed with the following steps.
A draft resolution will be written.
This draft will then be shared to request for comment before the market is finally resolved.
Update 2025-05-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified the resolution criteria for the US economy topic:
This topic will resolve to YES if the announcement involves anything that has a significant impact on the US economy.
This interpretation was proposed by user @Odoacre in response to the creator's request for clarification, and the creator agreed to it.
An example discussed and accepted was that an announcement concerning medical costs would qualify if it is deemed to have a significant impact on inflation, thereby impacting the US economy.
1,000
3.00The president provided no other details, but suggested he would share the news before he leaves for a trip to the Middle East next week.
-NY Times article linked in description
I think the time for this to close is upon us. I personally believe the window on this market has closed with him already having gone on the trip. Even so, I await the market creator's confirmation before I make any big moves across the board.
I'm personally of the opinion that the Prescription Drug and Pharmaceutical Prices market is likely to resolve YES, but the trade marker on this comment shows that I'm biased to that point of view, so take that for what you all will.
@copiumarc it seems like every market that even remotely is related to Trump saying something runs into these problems. 😔
@copiumarc according to the resolution criteria:
"If by May 20 Trump makes no announcement that is unambiguously the one he referred to on May 6, market settles YES to "Trump makes no announcement by May 20" and NO to everything dependent on him actually making an announcement"
@DanielHeinz idk, if you look at the WH twitter account, the majority of the posts are about price controls for prescription drugs, including this:
what's funny about both of these options is that 1) Biden already moved to lower the cost of prescription drugs and he/his fanclub called it socialism and wanted to kill it. and tons of his biggest supporters' tweets are being unearthed where they're shouting about price controls as communism. and 2) the China announcement is very stupid and no person in their right mind could consider it an "historic trade win" lol
@shankypanky ok, I'm convinced.
Not sure this market will resolve, then.
The reduction in tarrifs is about as big of news as is possible,. considering the role China plays in our economy, and the fact that the US/China relationship is the defining question of our time.
But you're right to say that there's reason to believe that's not what he's referring to.
I don't buy that the big announcement is just about prescription drug prices. Something like this seems more likely: Report: Saudis will try to get Trump to back deal for Palestinian state, end to war, regional normalization | The Times of Israel
I made a separate market to focus on whether that deal happens: [Short fuse] Will Trump announce that the US will recognize Palestine as a state by the end of this week? | Manifold
@TimothyJohnson5c16 What more do you need than Trump saying "my next truth will be one of my most important and impactful" and following it up with a truth about drug prices which includes "I will be signing one of the most consequential Executive Orders in our Country's history?
@ChristopherRandles Trump's philosophy is to never communicate clearly when he can instead keep his options open through ambiguity.
So if nothing comes out of his Middle East trip, then the drug price order will be "the" announcement. But if he gets some sort of Middle East peace deal, then it will be that instead.
@copiumarc Maybe people see it as drug prices but there is a vaguely related tariff wall on drug also coming such that tariffs are vaguely connected but it is not really about taxes? Maybe there is no chance of the taxes resolving yes but some uncertainty about the tariff connection?
@Joshua You seemed first to move on pushing the Medicare option as high as it got, and you also defended your targeted percentage with conviction.
You have my attention.
I'd love to tap into whatever news source you were listening to then, assuming that we actually resolve it and/or the other drug market option YES.
