Will extraterrestrial life be found by 2100?
Will extraterrestrial life be found by 2100?
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Resolves YES if conclusive evidence is found of life that does not live on Earth and did not originate from Earth.
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By not originate from Earth, do you mean modern Earth? We know that in the early days of life on Earth we were trading rocks with Venus and Mars semi frequently, so it might be very hard to definitively prove that it is not related.
predictedNO 2y
@LivInTheLookingGlass My intention was to exclude anything that came from Earth, no matter when. If there's doubt as to whether it came from Earth or not, this won't resolve YES.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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