Will GiveWell fund Educate! Experience program by 1st January 2027?
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Plus
9
Ṁ2625
2026
20%
chance

This question resolves positively if GiveWell gives a grant or publishes a recommendation that grants be given to fund Educate! Experience program on or before December 31, 2026. Or if a charity undertaking the same work is designated a "Top Charity" or a recipient of "All Funds" before the deadline. This resolves according to a statement from GiveWell or a credible news organisation.

 

It resolves "No" otherwise.

 

The most likely resolution mechanism is that GiveWell writes "yes" in the column "Have we recommended one or more grants to support this program?" in the "” Educate! Experience program” row of the GiveWell program reviews spreadsheet (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TG7WRU85p1SEjir-5qvIEg4kVG9a4Lnzdgwcub8aKSs/edit#gid=0) or a spreadsheet that supersedes it.

-- Note --

Can you find issues with this question. It's kind of flawed but I don't know how to fix it.

-- Background --

GiveWell has recommended grants to over 10 charities over the years. They are currently investigating 12 charity areas with other areas of research in the pipeline including Educate! Experience program.

The following is taken directly from Givewell’s explanation of the topic.

Educate! is a nonprofit that aims to increase skills among youth in East Africa in order to increase their success in formal employment and entrepreneurial activities.

We reviewed preliminary evidence from a randomized controlled trial of the Educate! Experience program (Chioda and Gertler n.d.), which provides mentorship to students in their last two years of secondary school and aims to develop students’ interpersonal skills (e.g., communication and teamwork), intrapersonal skills (e.g., self-confidence, critical thinking, creativity, and grit), and hard skills (e.g., business planning, budgeting, and saving). Chioda and Gertler n.d. finds that the program did not lead to increases in wages, earnings, revenue, or profits at a four-year follow-up. It does find effects on other outcomes, including secondary school completion and intimate partner violence. We have not reviewed the study in depth, nor have we seen a final draft of the results.

Because the RCT does not find an effect on measures related to income or consumption, we guess that this program has low cost-effectiveness, and we do not plan to conduct further investigation in the near term. However, we have not conducted a formal cost-effectiveness analysis of the program and have not attempted to quantify benefits on outcomes beyond income or consumption, such as improvements in educational outcomes or measures of intimate partner violence. We plan to revisit this program once data from the seven-year follow-up are available, since this might capture income effects for those still in school at the time of the four-year follow-up. We may also review similar youth skills programs in the future if we find evidence of larger effects on income or other outcomes”

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If this is the same program, it seems like the updated results found big effects on income and business profits

predictedNO

Estimated a 24% base rate among programs GiveWell listed in 2017 but had not given a grant too yet (https://www.givewell.org/research/intervention-reports/august-2017-version)

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