
Will AI top level capabilities generally be judged by question and answer benchmarks in 2029?
Basic
8
Ṁ1652029
25%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Which AI will be the best at the end of 2025?
Before 2028, will any AI model achieve the same or greater benchmarks as o3 high with <= 1 million tokens per question?
86% chance
Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?
58% chance
Will AIs beat human experts in question-answering on the GPQA benchmark before January 1st, 2027?
95% chance
Will AI be smarter than any one human probably around the end of 2025?
16% chance
By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)
96% chance
🐕 Will Any AI Effectively Achieve Higher than Human Level Reasoning Through Common Sense Questions, By 2024 End?
37% chance
Will Quora questions be auto-answered by a more sophisticated bot (at level of GPT3.5 or higher) by EOY 2025?
77% chance
Will an ai be trained/fine-tuned on Quora by 2035?
92% chance
What will be the top-3 AI tools in 2025?