The EA community will have a major split/conflict between progressive and rationalist EAs before 2030. | Manifold

The EA community will have a major split/conflict between progressive and rationalist EAs before 2030.

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27

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2029

50%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Something we'd pay $10 million to avert.

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"Progressive" and "rationalist" aren't opposed. You might be thinking of —

progressive vs. libertarian
progressive vs. reactionary
progressives & libertarians vs. reactionaries & neofascists
rationalist vs. post-rationalist
rationalist vs. mysterian
something else

What exactly is meant by "progressive" in contrast to rationalist?

Who's "we"?

This needs much clearer resolution criteria. You can make the argument this has already happened.

Can you name any examples of a split you'd pay 10 million to avert?

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Will >60% of EAs believe that "Pause AI" protests have been net positive in Q4 2025?

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Will >60% of EAs believe that "Pause AI" protests have been net positive in 2030?

If no other big events happen and there is a big inter-community listening exercise, will EA split into 2 parties before 2025?

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There will be significant bad blood within EA over disagreements about feminism before 2025

How much will AI advances impact EA research effectiveness, by 2030?

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Will EA community deploy and actively use a DAO by 2027?

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