This market will resolve to "Yes" if any formal or official announcement or confirmation is made before January 1, 2025, indicating that a coup d'etat has occurred in Iran, Egypt, Syria, Jordan, or Lebanon. A coup d'etat refers to the unlawful, unconstitutional overthrow of a government, typically by a faction within the country's political, military, or governmental structure. This could include but is not limited to the ousting, arrest, or death of a current leader and the subsequent installation of a new leader without a legal or constitutional process.

The coup d'etat must be reported by 3 of the following sources:

• international news organizations (each counts as 1)

  • BBC

  • CNN

  • Al Jazeera

  • Reuters

• Official government sources (each counts as 1)

  • United States

  • the United Kingdom

  • France

  • China

  • Russia