At close, what % of the Manifold users will think that GiveWell's work before 2023 was net positive? Resolves in 100 years, but has .1% chance to resolve each year. Vote Yes to increase %.
Plus
22
Ṁ15642123
87%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Ex post. Ie using all the knowledge we have at the time! So if the increased wealth starts a war that noone could have forseen, this still resolves negatilvely.
Rolling 1000 on a 1-1000 randomiser will resolve.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
🗳️💭What will Manifold's Approval Rating be at end of Q1 2025? [Poll Index]
61% chance
🗳️💭What will Manifold's Approval Rating be at end of Q1 2025? [Poll Index]
50% chance
5️⃣0️⃣0️⃣ Will Manifold users that respond to the poll asking if it will reach 500 votes by EOY 2025 predict correctly?
72% chance
Will Manifold allow questions to be resolved by a poll of random users before 2025?
28% chance
On resolution, will I think cash transfers to poor people have significant long-term improvements in Subjective Well Being? 10% chance to resolve each year
80% chance
This market will resolve YES if I'm still active on Manifold by the end of 2025, and NO otherwise. I will bet only YES.
91% chance
This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2026
49% chance
On resolution, will I think that Strong Minds analysis of their work is correct? 10% chance to resolve each year
11% chance
Will Manifold's Approval Ratings end the year over 50%? (Poll Index version)
55% chance
Will I ever be net positive (real money) on Manifold before 2030?
32% chance