2x2: Will Labour get a majority, Will more than 200k houses be built per year, on average, in England and Wales?
2x2: Will Labour get a majority, Will more than 200k houses be built per year, on average, in England and Wales?
Plus
22
Ṁ15352027
27%
Labour Majority, >200k houses built per year
71%
Labour Majority, <=200k houses built per year
0.8%
Not Labour Majority, >200k houses built per year
0.8%
Not Labour Majority, <=200k houses built per year
The housing part of this resolves to "Yes" if, during the next UK Parliament, an average of more than 200k "permanent dwellings" are built in England and Wales, per year, according to the ONS.
There may be estimation require to figure out which parts of each year are attributed to the correct period. Comments will be taken into account but mods decision is final.
The reports are currently stored here: ONS reports.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
2x2: Will Labour get a majority, Will net migration be above 400k per year on average in the UK?
2x2: Will Labour get a majority, Will illegal migration be above 20k per year on average in the UK?
Will London build more than 60,000 houses a year on average between September 2022 and the next UK election?
4% chance
Will the UK build >1.5m new homes by the end of Q2 2029
38% chance
Will there be a huge increase in UK housebuilding before 2030? What is the political result at the next election?
2x2: Will Labour get a majority, Will UK aid be at or above the 0.6% of GNI by the end of the Parliament?
Conditional on Labour winning the next election, will English housing rents increase by more than 3% in 2025?
90% chance
2x2: Will Labour get a majority, Will inflation on average be between 1.5% and 2.5%
2x2: Will Labour get majority, Will there be more than 80k robberies, on average?
2x2: Will Labour get majority, will fossil fuels (without imports) compose >33% of UK energy gen next Parliament?