Resolves YES if my calibration is a B or higher on Dec. 31, 2024. Resolves NO if my calibration is a B- or lower on Dec. 31, 2024.
I will only buy yes shares and I will not sell them.
I guess a smarter thing to do would be to ask some Manifold guys how calibration was calculated (or maybe it is already somewhere, idk, I can't find it in the FAQ) and then calculate it manually. If it fails, then NA
Hmm, I definitely agree with the first sentence, but the second deserves clarification! ❤
There is no doubt that I will still be a dumb bitch at the end of this year! BUT, this market isn't about whether I will stop being a dumb bitch, but whether I will "stop being a [sic] such a dumb bitch in 2024." So I contend that I could resolve this market YES without contradiction, because I specify precisely the margin I must stop being such a dumb bitch along, provided my calibration score which is found here increases to a B or better.
I got a market where people compile free money markets:
/Bayesian/free-mana-will-20-free-profit-oppor