Will humanity wipe out superintelligent AI before 2040?
Will humanity wipe out superintelligent AI before 2040?
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This market resolves YES if it is confirmed that humanity destroyed all superintelligent AI before 2040. This market resolves NO if it is not confirmed that humanity has destroyed all superintelligent AI before 2040. This market resolves NO if humanity has not yet created a superintelligent AI before 2040.
This question was inspired by the Butlerian Jihad.
I use the definition from GamblingGandalf's market:
Superintelligent AI: An AI system surpassing majority human intellect in most or all fields, capable of understanding, learning, and applying knowledge across various tasks beyond single-domain specialization.
I will not bet on this market due to the vagueness of this definition.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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