2025 is the year.

@miles Certainly not 2025. It has to "reach Mars" so it is arrival time - maybe Sept 2027. Seems that ESCAPADE has missed this window anyway:

https://spacenews.com/escapade-looking-at-2025-and-2026-launch-options/
"Lillis said the mission [EscaPADE] is now examining launch opportunities in 2025 and 2026. “Now, Mars arrival will be in September 2027,” he said, two years later than previously planned.

Those new launch opportunities involve complex trajectories compared to the direct flight to Mars available during traditional launch windows. He showed several options for launch opportunities in late 2025 and early 2026 that involved what he described as a “kidney bean-shaped dance” around the Earth-sun L-2 Lagrange point before doing an Earth gravity assist to head off to Mars."

A late 2026/early 2027 SpaceX launch might have potential to beat this?
This does allow time for New Glenn to be ready for launch. Previously I was thinking New Glenn may not be ready for a Spring 2025 launch.

Not sure but perhaps it now seems like there never was a Spring 2025 launch date with a trajectory more like it was just that New Glenn wouldn't be available until Spring 2025?

Extended close to end of 2025. Will extend indefinitely until it resolves either way.

With the rumours of Blue Origin acquiring ULA, and subsequently Vulcan I want to know if you guys think it’s fair to include Vulcan as a possible vehicle that reaches Mars for BO side? My inclination is no, based on how I have worded the question but it does make for a dynamic markwt

@NGK assuming New Glenn has always been in the title I think it would be a bad change

@NGK very much not, since the market as written refers to specific rockets rather than the launch companies generically.

If you want to ask the general question about any rocket owned by Blue Origin, that's a different market. If you do make a market about that, be sure to clarify that ownership is what counts rather than branding, so that it's clear Vulcan would count even if an acquisition doesn't change the names of anything.

A bit of relevant info re whether or not ESCAPADE launches August next year as planned:

Rob Lillis (the principal investigator for ESCAPADE) has said "It hasn’t launched yet and we are concerned about that. But, having seen the Blue Origin facility at Cape Canaveral, I was much less concerned after seeing all the work they’ve done. I’m confident they will likely be ready for the launch of ESCAPADE."
Source: https://spacenews.com/escapade-confident-in-planned-2024-new-glenn-launch/

And while the above quote honestly doesn't make me super confident they'll meet this year's launch window; it's worth noting that even if ESCAPADE doesn't launch till 2026, there's a decent chance they'll still beat SpaceX simply because SpaceX will be focused on Starlink, recovery & reuse, HLS, Dear Moon etc; and unless they get a contract for a Mars mission (which don't come up very often, NASA have only sent a total of 3 missions to Mars (orbit or surface) in the past 10 years) they simply won't have any reason to send a mission to Mars (the last we've heard about Elon's plans for Mars is an uncrewed landing in 2027 which even if doesn't get delayed would still be after ESCAPADE).

Which means the bigger question (for me at least) is simply whether the ESCAPADE launch is successful when it does eventually happen, because if ESCAPADE is lost it's unlikely Blue Origin will have another opportunity for a mission to Mars for a while after.

So based on the article I guess the question is whether a spacecraft launched on New Glenn (like EscaPADE) will reach Mars before anything launched by SpaceX?

Or does it have to be the New Glenn upper stage itself?

@dp9000 Yes any payload launched by New Glenn would suffice.