Trying to give pretty precise resolution criteria-- will do my best to refine and resolve in the spirit of the question, and won't be betting.
Resolves YES if anything like these happen:
GM sells its controlling stake in Cruise to a competitor (e.g. no longer has >50% of voting shares; IPO does not count).
Cruise's driverless (Level 4 or 5) aspirations are abandoned in the immediate future. (For example, instead Cruise could aim for more conservative long-term self-driving goals: Level 3 [manned self-driving] or Level 2 [ADAS like Tesla "FSD"]). This would require Cruise or GM announcing such.
All public robotaxi ride-hail operations are shut down. ("Public" meaning non-Cruise/GM employees, regardless of fares or waitlists).
Resolves NO if nothing like this happens by the end of 2024.
Some examples of things that wouldn't result in an immediate YES resolution:
Paid ride-hail operations shut down, but unpaid rides to some members of the public continue.
Cruise decides to pivot to persuing self-driving trucking for some reason (but meanwhile public ride-hail operations continue).
2023-11-06: Clarifiy that controlling state considers voting shares in the case of voting share shenanigans
1,000
3.00Cruise announced relaunch of manned testing in Phoenix, AZ, yesterday
https://twitter.com/Cruise/status/1777730749698826490
https://manifold.markets/MingweiSamuel/where-will-gm-cruise-relaunch-in-li
"Cruise co-founder and CEO Kyle Vogt resigns"
https://techcrunch.com/2023/11/19/cruise-co-founder-and-ceo-kyle-vogt-resigns/
GM spokesperson Aimee Ridella emailed the following statement to the Detroit Free Press on Friday: "GM has made a bold commitment to autonomous vehicle technology because we believe in the profound, positive impact it will have on societies, including saving countless lives. We believe strongly in Cruise’s mission and the transformative technology it is developing. Safety has to be our top priority and we fully support the actions that Cruise leadership is taking to ensure that it is putting safety first and building trust and credibility with government partners, regulators, and the broader community. Our commitment to Cruise with the goal of commercialization remains steadfast.”
@MingweiSamuel The GM spokesperson went on to add, " but if you do want to acquire us, which is not what we are seeking, we believe the appropriate valuation reflects that we have a legitimate pathway to commercialization. All of our setbacks have just been due to bad luck and bad management. We are not following the Theranos business model of building out immense infrastructure while still not having functioning technology, or even a legitimate pathway to creating the functioning technology. Pay no attention to our interventions every 2.5 miles. Nothing to see there. Any offers?"
G.M. said in a statement that its “commitment to Cruise with the goal of commercialization remains steadfast.” It said that it believed in the company’s mission and technology and supported its steps to put safety first.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/03/technology/cruise-general-motors-self-driving-cars.html
@MingweiSamuel A troubling number: 2.5-5 VMT per remote intervention
Half of Cruise’s 400 cars were in San Francisco when the driverless operations were stopped. Those vehicles were supported by a vast operations staff, with 1.5 workers per vehicle. The workers intervened to assist the company’s vehicles every 2.5 to 5 miles, according to two people familiar with is operations. In other words, they frequently had to do something to remotely control a car after receiving a cellular signal that it was having problems.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38145997
The stat quoted by nyt is how frequently the AVs initiate an RA session. Of those, many are resolved by the AV itself before the human even looks at things, since we often have the AV initiate proactively and before it is certain it will need help.