Context
Chancellor Merz supports Germany’s withdrawal from Eurovision 2026 if Israel is not allowed to compete. (Oct 10th 2025: EurovisionFun)
This is the first country which mentions the idea of a conditional withdrawal in case Israel is not allowed to participate.
Options
Other countries that state they are considering a conditional withdrawal might be added. Please alert me if you hear any news and I will consider adding them as option.
I didn't find the way to create a Set question with only one option to start with, so I added "... [DO NOT USE] for additional options, please sugget countries" as workaround. This option is not valid and will resolve NA.
Resolution criteria
If Israel is allowed to participate in Eurovision, the market will resolve as NA.
If Israel is not allowed to participate, then:
For each listed country:
- If the broadcaster representing the country decides to withdraw with a clear reference to Israel not being allowed to participate, it resolves as YES
- If the broadcaster participates in Eurovision, it resolves as NO
- If the broadcaster does not participate for reasons other than Israel participation, it resolves as NA
Related markets
Which countries will withdraw from Eurovision 2026 if Israel participates? by @TenShino
How many countries decline to participate in Eurovision 2026? By @JussiVilleHeiskanen
EBU bars Israel from Eurovision 2026 at December meeting? By @someoneR5c8l
1,000
3.00@DaniellqdC6 good point. In Spain the RTVE direction is chosen by the government. I don't know how it works for Germany.
I assume he has some leverage to influence them and/or some information to believe they are already on the same side, otherwise he wouldn't have made the public comments.
I'm not really sure, I haven't researched this at all and I'm not fammiliar with German broadcasters relation to government. What I know is that all media have said the German broadcasters will vote in favor of Israel participation.