TikTok Ban Endgame: Which will happen first?

Plus

145

Ṁ30k

2029

38%

The TikTok "ban" will be rendered unenforceable by courts (with little chance of appeal/overturn)

22%

None of these will happen by EOY 2028

21%

TikTok will become unavailable in Apple/Google app stores in the US for at least 30 days

14%

TikTok will be sold to a non-Chinese company

The TikTok "ban" will go at least a year without movement toward becoming law

1.9%

The TikTok "ban" will be vetoed by a president (with little chance of override)

Will resolve to the first thing that definitely happens

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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I'm curious what "None of these will happen" looks like -- maybe the executive simply doesn't bother enforcing the law?

Hi You no

reposted

@MichaelBlume Good market, especially with the bill looking very likely to pass! I'm adding some subsidy and boosting!

Both, Either?

@DavidFWatson Let's go with a majority of smartphone users in the US will not be able to download TikTok from their preferred app store.

@MichaelBlume Wait, doesn’t that just mean this resolves 100% based on the Apple App Store?

@DavidFWatson Why even mention Google?

"movement toward becoming law" means procedural stuff, amendments, floor votes, stuff you would see in the congressional record

bought Ṁ100 NO

@MichaelBlume So since it's now signed into law, that option is guaranteed to resolve NO, right?

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