The market will be resolved according to the data from Tradingview: Binance Spot chart [BTC/USD] at the time of the monthly close. The results will be available 24 hours after closing to resolve.
1,000
3.00@MaxJiang i can give you a better price than that and a lot of liquidity; 25000M limit order at 66% for a few hours
@Bayesian I think I more or less understood what you said though wtf haha, however, you are not considering anyone buying yes knows if BTC goes over 100k it's for sure gonna end december over that number, and the bull market looks super healthy with the slight corrections (it is happening haha) but regardless the p of both cases are basically the same on the eyes of any yes holder so this is even cheap
@Choms it is not plausible that one would know for sure that btc will end the year above 100k if it reaches 100k for a moment. That would violate some reasonable assumptions of the behaviour of the btc price, and would mean weird stuff like that we would expect the price to jump by many thousands of $ immediately upon hitting 100k. The yes holders who think the probability of both cases is basically the same are not serious but should definitely buy YES so I can get NO at a better price
@Bayesian why I'm gonna buy more expensive YES if I know people don't understand the Bitcoin halving cycles and I can buy cheaper? lol your "reasonable assumptions" ignore the rainbow chart ;)
@deagol @Bayesian @Choms On the first day of the year, the market will be resolved according to the price data indicated by the Binance spot chart. Responding to some comments, this market is only intended to determine whether the price of bitcoin will remain above 100k or not at the close of the day 12/31/2014 or at the close of the month 12/2024 (it's the same thing, guys).
@deagol haha more like you are welcome for him taking your loss 😛 I'm jk, though this is going to resolve YES :)
@traders limit to get me out at 40% since I don't like betting on ambiguous questions.
@MerleBtc this is about the close of the month as stated in the description, so only close of Dec 31 not the close for any day of December, right? Thanks for clarifying.
@deagol I think it's also consistent with "at the end of the monthly close, we'll check if any of the december closes were above 100k", but good question
@Bayesian Sorry, that interpretation makes no sense. Why would we check at the end of the month if we know all of Manifold checks every single day to squeeze out the last mana? And then this would remain unresolved for the rest of the month, until the author "checks" for the already known truth? Also, it literally says "at the time of the monthly close" but checking all the daily closes post facto requires no time to do so, it can even be done mid January. So no, the wording in the description clearly means what we all understood.
Edit: The only reason I asked for clarification is the slightly ambiguous title "in December" (and I know some traders only glimpse ar the title ignore the description and interpret whatever they want), whether to read it as "during December" or "at the end of December" must be parsed with the description which more clearly states the later.
@deagol hmmm, I think that interpretation still makes sense.
Why would we check at the end of the month if we know all of Manifold checks every single day to squeeze out the last mana?
Market creator may have not wanted to have to check everyday, only at the end of the month
And then this would remain unresolved for the rest of the month, until the author "checks" for the already known truth?
Yeah and this is fine
Also, it literally says "at the time of the monthly close" but checking all the daily closes post facto requires no time to do so, it can even be done mid January.
Sure and market creator may have decided to do it around the time of market close, leaving themselves a reminder or something
So no, the wording in the description clearly means what we all understood.
maybe. I'm not sure
@Bayesian "this is fine" keeping several thousands of mana capital locked up for days or weeks is not fine. Leaving the door open for a stretched (at best) reinterpretation for the maximalist creator (it's in their screen name) to decide after the facts are known creates bad incentives, is not fine. The wording in the description is pretty obvious and the only ambiguity comes from the title.
Alright, I don't agree that that's not fine, but I do hope the market creator resolves the market honestly, as I expect them to. (what does a maximalist creator mean?)
not that important, but if it's known a market will resolve YES in a few weeks, you can easily sell close to 99% by telling others about this fact. so like these resolution delays are not that big of a deal.
@Bayesian We don't need to hope creator resolves honestly, mods can fix a dishonest resolution. You know, BTC maximalist, a kind of extreme, hyper-fucused perma-bull and hyper-rationalizing bitcoin fan/trader with extreme cognitive bias. Please note I'm not making a judgement about the creator, just my opinion on what characterizes BTC maximalists in general. Perhaps I'm wrong and the creator isn't a proponent of such extreme ideologies, or they are an exceptionally unbiased fan of BTC (I assume they're a fan because of their nick).
@Bayesian I do hope the creator chimes in soon and avoids us having to resort to mods reinterpreting something that seems clearly stated "at monthly close" but I grant could in a distracted glimpse be read as "any daily close during December" especially if not reading the description.
Please note I'm not making a judgement about the creator
lol you are calling him maximalist and whatever else and the guy hasn't even answered 😂 have you maybe considered what @Bayesian said here?
Market creator may have not wanted to have to check everyday, only at the end of the month
Though I agree @MerleBtc should clarify this, I also think this is open to interpretation at this point, but as said his last activity is 2 days ago, before you posted this question, how about we don't imply bad things about people we don't know and give him time to actually reply?
@Choms again, I'm not judging or saying anything bad about the creator. BTC maxi is a term of pride for the proponents. I just think they are biased, but we all are, just some of us maybe not as extremely biased. Nothing bad about it, just normal for humans including myself.
I did say it's bad to leave the door open for a reinterpretation of the resolution criteria until the end of the month when the facts will be known and the bias can creep up and incentivize a positive resolution on more lenient criteria than originally stated. This is no fault of the creator, but of traders reading whatever they want on a question.
@deagol well, as a non-native English speaker, I can relate with people being confused with some expressions, I myself misinterpret some very specific wording, and honestly this could be the case as I did interpreted what Bayesian said.
I completely agree with your last portion, OP should clarify this sooner rather than later, I'm just saying, it's been weekend, the guy wasn't around the last 2 days, and this is posted for less than 24h, we should give him a reasonable amount of time to reply (reasonable is not on 25th December, it is within a week, imo)
The market will be resolved according to the data from the Binance Spot chart [BTC/USD] at the time of the monthly close.
You read this as any daily close during December? Or was it the title?
@deagol the title and also it says the chart and not the price, if it said the price at the time of the monthly close it would be clear, but referring to the chart I implied it meant the monthly chart (which again could be a misinterpretation from my side, but yeah along the title I thought of it that way)