Will Harvard Admit a Class that is Less than 10% Hispanic by 2028? | Manifold

Will Harvard Admit a Class that is Less than 10% Hispanic by 2028?

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Edit: If the multiracial category comes back and the Hispanic number is under 10% I'm going to try to generate a principled estimate of what the Hispanic figure would have been under the old rubric. I expect this will mean multiplying the reported Hispanic figure by 1.84,* but I'm open to alternative methodologies.

If any Harvard College (undergraduate) class up to and including the class of 2032 (admitted in the fall of 2028) is less than 10.0% Hispanic, this market resolves yes.

Methodology: the Crimson publishes demographics of each admitted class that remains searchable. From the class of 2017 to 2026 (excluding the class of 2022 when "multiracial" was included as a category)* this figure as ranged from 10.2% (2021) to 13.4% (2024 & 2025). See e.g. https://features.thecrimson.com/2014/freshman-survey/makeup/

The average % Hispanic in the four years on either side of Co2019 was 11.95. 11.95/6.5 = 1.84

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Added a maybe important qualifier to how I'll resolve if how Harvard measures ethnicity changes. I expect it will only be relevant to this market.

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