Conditional on Republican trifecta: will prescribing abortion pills be a US federal felony at the end of December 2026?
Plus
27
Ṁ37712027
7%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
"Trifecta" here means "Republicans win the House, Senate, and Presidency". If they do not win a trifecta I will cancel the market. Otherwise I will resolve based on the non conditional version of this market.
The spirit of this question is "will the US make getting/giving/using abortion pills inevitably involve a federal felony", so it will resolve YES even if e.g. distributing (but not prescribing) becomes a felony.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
Gallup polling suggests most people don't want this, including most of the crucial demographic of independents [1].
[1] https://news.gallup.com/poll/507149/americans-favor-availability-abortion-pill.aspx
Inspired by this market, but with more time:
Related questions
Related questions
Conditional on Republican trifecta: will prescribing abortion pills be a US federal felony at the end of February 2025?
8% chance
Will prescribing abortion pills be a US federal felony at the end of February 2025?
12% chance
If Trump gets elected, will prescribing abortion pills be a US federal felony at the end of February 2025?
10% chance
If a Republican wins the 2024 Presidential Election, how will abortion be restricted federally before 2027?
Will any US state ban the morning after pill before the end of 2030?
70% chance
Will abortion in the first trimester (ish) have substantive federal protection in 2040?
47% chance
Will abortion in the first trimester (ish) have substantive federal protection in 2030?
41% chance
If the GOP wins a trifecta in 2024, will a national 6 week or less abortion ban be passed by the midterm election?
25% chance
If Trump is elected will the Comstock laws be used to ban the shipping of abortion pills by the end of 2026
47% chance
Will the Comstock Act be used against the shipping of abortion pills nationally before 2028?
47% chance