A friend of mine bought the preorder in January and it has still not been delivered. Assuming they satisfy older orders first, this might take a while :)

@Simon1 I ordered last year, and wasn't in the "40% already shipped" as far as I know.

Wait, is this about lumina probiotica, that company scott alexander reviewed that creates genetically modified bacteria which prevent tooth cavities by turning the sugar into sterilising ethanol? They're pretty cool

@TheAllMemeingEye yes, anyone who believes them to be more competent than I do is free to take my Mana away from me on this wager

@MarySmith lol why did you buy it if you think they're incompetent? Or maybe I'm misunderstanding

😂 I reserve the right to update my priors on any group or individual. I'd still want to try their product if it took another year or 20 - the people in my community were talking about pooling our money together and sending someone to prospera before direct to consumer became an option, under the premise that we'd figure out a way to seed ourselves off of the person who went 😂

Also there are so many things that have to be done right for a business to work.

The market provides!

@MarySmith please do create a market regarding its effects on you

@noney what outcomes would you like to see predicted?

@MiaCat

@MarySmith the kitty has foresaken us 😞

@TheAllMemeingEye @ian this is my attempt at a date market?

@MarySmith should this be a set market instead, because there's some chance that they all resolve NO? @ian

@MarySmith You can say in the description that you'll resolve to the maximum option if it's not out by then!

@ian excellent idea, thank you! I did.

@ian so I'm not able to close options as they expire in a date auction?