Did Trump declassify all classified documents seized by the FBI raid of Mar-a-Lago?
➕
Plus
19
Ṁ2794
Mar 2
3%
chance

Aug 15, 6:23pm: I may extend the market resolution date based on a pending inquiry in Congress, for example.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

resolves no? @MartinRandall

Trial still ongoing and I don't think he's waived that defense.

@strutheo I currently expect this to resolve NO once Trump takes office and directs the prosecution to get the case dismissed. At that point all investigations will be finished and we will have no evidence of declassification.

But there is still time for Trump to provide evidence for his claim that he declassified everything and was lying when he told people that he was showing them classified information.

The trial should answer this question more definitively.

predictedNO

Awkward, the only yes trader has blocked me.

How are you going to resolve this? Like he could claim he desclaisified something, but the courts could disagree or not have decided

predictedNO

@BenjaminKadish I won't accept leaks or statements from Trump or his associates as there is a history of such statements being serious but not literal, or being later retracted. Similarly I'm unlikely to accept leaks from ongoing investigations as such leaks can have motivations other than promoting the truth.

I would likely accept uncontested evidence given under penalty of perjury. I would likely also accept a decision not to press charges due to evidence that all documents were declassified.

predictedNO

@BenjaminKadish Based on reporting so far it seems like his lawyers have hinted that he declassified them all, but have not stated it outright. Maybe to avoid typing their hand to prosecutors. Maybe because lying to judges is a career limiting decision.

predictedYES

in b4 but EsPiOnAgE aCT and nukuLaR sEcReTS

predictedNO

@Gigacasting But you think there's only a 16% chance he did so?

@Gigacasting the president does not have the authority to declassify anything as per the Atomic Energy Acts of 1946 and 1954.

Also, the president has the authority to classify documents as well. Biden absolutely has the authority to classify anything Trump declassified; who knows if he did though.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/08/trump-fbi-raid-classified-nuclear-documents/671119/

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules