What will happen as a result of the Charlie Kirk assassination?
234
Ṁ16k
2026
95%
Charlie Kirk receives Presidential Medal of Freedom
90%
government employee fired for personal statements on kirk is reinstated or wins employment/first amendment lawsuit about firing
84%
Federal investigation started into "funders" of "the left"
77%
Another left-wing group is legally declared a terrorist organization.
75%
South Park does an episode that alludes to it
70%
Increased stigma towards sexual "deviants" in the US
61%
A member of a prominent left-leaning organization is arrested.
60%
Search warrant/subpoena executed against an individual citing social media posts about the shooting
58%
Another political assassination (either side)
56%
Any left-wing NGO is shut down
54%
At least once person is hospitalized or killed in a violent incident started by someone who thinks they are retaliating for Kirk's death
50%
Jezebel writer Claire Guinan testifies that she doesn't believe in witchcraft.
46%
5+ reporters/columnists fired (across any outlets)
45%
Kirk or the assassination referenced explicitly in super bowl ad
34%
"Groyper War 3" declared by Nick Fuentes or one of his generals
34%
event with left leaning speaker canceled on a different campus by that school's admin and cancellation explicitly references shooting
32%
The FCC revokes a station’s broadcast license over any misinformation about Kirk.
29%
At least 100 people are arrested on Antifa charges.
28%
Any House Democrat is censured for comments on Kirk.
25%
event with right leaning speaker canceled on a different campus by that school's admin and cancellation explicitly references shooting

Feel free to add your own, but egregiously irrelevant answers will be N/Aed. Try to keep it to things that can be connected to this event! I'll avoid betting in this market on anything where there could be ambiguity.

  • Update 2025-09-11 (PST) (Creator summary of creator comment): - For the answer "Another political assassination (either side)": There must be some proven link - inspiration, direct influence, etc - between the Kirk assassination and anything that would give this a YES resolution.

  • Update 2025-09-16 (PST) (Creator summary of creator comment): - For the answer "Any left-wing group is legally designated as a 'terrorist organization'": A state or local designation doesn't count for this - it has to be federal (even if it's unconstitutional or otherwise goes through the improper channels, such as an executive order).

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@Chumchulum wait how was this a result of the killing?

@Mrdudeguy Evan made this market:

You might notice it's not a regular yes/no market as it's supposed to be. That's because Evan was making unlinked binary markets to milk trader bonuses for some time, including some big name ones. It got noticed by the mods on this market, which earned Evan a 1 week suspension.

Because of that 1 week suspension, Evan proceeded to have the biggest crashout I've seen in a while, going full scorched earth and using a bug to get himself about a billion mana, inverting a number of markets, sending huge amounts of mana to random people, and opening huge positions on markets, which required a full system rollback. I can only assume that week-long suspension got upped a bit.

@Marnix I see. Thanks for the explanation.

I’m worried about the backlash against all the peaceful Charlie Kirk assassins

bought Ṁ25 YES

two events of this nature have been foiled by authorities’ intervention

#1: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/abilene-texas-pride-charlie-kirk-threat-b2833906.html

#2: https://people.com/charlie-kirk-martyr-allegedly-threatens-shoot-up-gay-bar-11813937

either would have resolved YES if successful, right?

If either of these had happened and this evidence came to light i'd have resolved this yes

@Dulaman Do we think this resolves YES? The latest episode doesn't seem to directly reference the assassination, but it DOES directly reference the post-assassination FCC/Kimmel fallout

@Marnix tricky

@Marnix I think it's too weak for a YES

bought Ṁ10 YES

@MachiNi Bit of a dilemma here: that's a senate resolution. Those aren't laws, don't go to the other house, and don't get signed by the president

sold Ṁ6 YES

@Marnix I see.

@Marnix what about this one? Are you gonna resolve it as yes? Jimmy came back already

@MindBenderMads in hindsight i probably should've made the resolution date a couple of months instead of a year

@Marnix this one’s easy, it resolves YES because it did end at least once

then, a separate “Jimmy Kimmel is reinstated” and “Jimmy Kimmel stays off the air until market close” question could trade as usual

@LiamRutherford I think we can resolve this. It actually went DOWN close to 3 points lol

@LiamRutherford man how tf has it already been two weeks? it simultaneously feels like it's only been a few days and like it's been a month

@BenM can we resolve this after this right wing activist canceled his thing?

https://www.axios.com/2025/09/11/charlie-kirk-hbcu-threats-ben-shapiro

@MindBenderMads this is about cancellation by school admin; it looks like that article (as far as I can tell before the paywall) is about self cancellation?

@MindBenderMads https://archive.is/dpO6R I think @jcb is right. This appears to be 1 self cancellation and one by the Reagan Library, not a college.

bought Ṁ10 NO

@jcb it weird, I found the article on google, but it’s not asking for money there:

@MindBenderMads ah, some sites don't show the paywall if you came from a search result, but do if you arrived from a link elsewhere 🙄

@jcb

So we have right wing activists, university campus but we don’t have an admin?? Or what might seem to be the issue

@MindBenderMads I don't think the Reagan Library is a University Campus

@BenM alright then, will do my research on this later.

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