What will Kamala Harris’s exact vote share be in California in the 2024 election? (Margin of Victory Challenge Mode)
Plus
17
Ṁ17kDec 1
93%
<59%
1.5%
[59%-60%)
1.3%
[60%-61%)
0.5%
[61%-61.5%)
0.4%
[61.5%-62%)
0.4%
[62%-62.5%)
0.4%
[62.5%-63%)
0.4%
[63%-63.5%)
0.4%
[63.5%-64%)
0.4%
[64%-64.5%)
0.4%
[64.5%-65%)
0.4%
[65%-66%)
0.4%
[66%-67%)
0.4%
67% or more
Probably the hardest margin of victory market I’ve designed. Buckets in half-percentage points.
Previous 4 elections: 61%, 60.2%, 61.7%, 63.5%.
Based on DDHQ. Including third parties.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
How much of the popular vote will Kamala Harris win in the 2024 United States Presidential election?
What percentage of electoral votes will Kamala Harris win in 2024?
42% chance
Will Kamala Harris win the Thiel Fellow vote in the 2024 presidential election?
52% chance
How many votes will Kamala Harris get in the 2024 United States Presidential election?
Will more people vote for Kamala Harris in the 2024 Presidential election than voted for Joe Biden in 2020?
1% chance
Will Kamala Harris run for governor of California?
17% chance
How much of the popular vote will Harris get [resolves to %]?
48% chance
Will Kamala Harris be elected governor of California in 2026?
13% chance
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 election and will she get over 90 million votes?
1% chance
Will Kamala Harris be elected President in 2028?
9% chance