Will the S&P 500 offer a REAL CAGR greater than 8% from 2024 until 2050? | Manifold

Will the S&P 500 offer a REAL CAGR greater than 8% from 2024 until 2050?

Plus

12

Ṁ210

2050

49%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

To calculate the outcome of this event, we'll determine the REAL Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of the S&P 500 using its opening value on the first trading day of 2024 and the first trading day of 2050 and the changes in the CPI between the two dates. Several factors could influence this outcome:

1. Inflation: As we're considering nominal returns, periods of high inflation could cause the stock market to rise without offering real returns.

2. Global Power Shifts: Changes in the global power balance may significantly impact market performance.

3. Global Catastrophes: Wars, pandemics, and similar events can drastically affect market stability and growth.

4. Technological Breakthroughs: Advances that increase productivity could lead to substantial market growth.

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#S&P 500 Changes

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I think it will look like the Nikkei 225. The stock market does not go up forever. GDP growth is unlikely to be higher than 2% per year from now to 2050 due to demographics.

what about dividends (reinvested?)

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