Somehow this market has ~infinite liquidity. Just yeet everything risk-free

Upgraded to premium!

Right now Nate Silver has Michigan at 59% Harris, 538 has it at 63% Harris, and The Economist has it at 64% Harris.

The same party wins the presidency in every state, this is worded quite oddly. Perhaps it means to say, "which party will win this states electoral votes for the presidency'

Harris +11 in Michigan according to the latest Morning Consult poll, not bad.

(My median guess for the margin in Michigan is much less than D+11, but it does update me a little!)

Nate Silver, 270towin, etc all do various kinds of weighted averaging because from time to time there’s outlier polls.

If this gets reproduced, then I would update. But I think it’s a little too early.

idk if it's actually better to downweight outliers? Feels arbitrary. imo best practice is just throw it in the average like everything else. And from looking into it, the sample isn't weirdly dem biased or anything, there's just a bunch of Trump 2020 -> Harris 2024 voters which haven't existed in other polls

If I ask ChatGPT about Morning Consults’ house effects, it mentions it skews Democratic and relies heavily on online surveys.

I can see it disproportionately picking up very online BRAT-meme’d kids. That being said, 11 points is still high. But would wait to see if it’s reproduced.

Checked the MI polls Nate uses, Morning Consult is included and could be picking up a crazy bump in support, or could be a hiccup.

Michigan has traditionally been the dems' strongest state among the rust belt swings. Obama won it by 17(!) points in 2008 and 10 points in 2012, so if Kamala's coalition looks a little bit like a hybrid of Obama's and Biden's, 11 points could definitely be feasible! 11 points in Michigan in a universe that's very easy to imagine could line up with like, +8 in Wisconsin, +4 in Pennsylvania and +4 nationally, or something? Plenty of polls showing Harris up 2/3 points nationally already!

Admittedly seems like an outlier at this point, but not a super bizarre one by any means.

outliers are supposed to happen! assuming lack of herding and good data practices.

Definitely! I mean, if someone released a poll showing Harris up 75-25 in Michigan I’d assume something was fundamentally wrong with their methodology. But a +11 result (with, I’m guessing a 3-5 point MOE) is not that.

If Harris wins the PV by 2, she loses Michigan...

@KwameOsei Obama won Michigan by 17 points in 2008 while winning the national popular vote by 7.

Don’t over-index on the last two elections. Coalitions can change. Wait for polling to settle down before concluding anything about the electoral college gap.

This is true, but Obama was disproportionately successful in the Midwest (he actually had an EC advantage relative to popular vote). I think Harris continues the trend away from that of Democratic overperformance in coasts and UMC suburbs while losing wwc (Nate silver said she has a bigger EC disadvantage than Biden)

Why would you bring up an election where Trump wasn't on the ballot? Going by the elections where he was on the ballot, a 2 point PV loss would likely result in Michigan going republican.

This is tendentious. Just wait a couple weeks for more state polls. I don’t think it’s as easy as you think it is to predict the EC gap in states with 1 week of polling.

Bruh do these betting odds match with reality💀💀💀💀. The polling show a complete different story even for Pennsylvania.

Biden up 5... absolutely inexplicably, but given I live in Michigan and fully intend on voting for him I guess I can't complain https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-bad-news-swing-states-poll-despite-joe-biden-debate-performance-1921852

Trump gets bad news in swing states despite Biden's debate performance

In a recent poll, President Joe Biden is 2 percentage points away from the former president among seven swing states.

It’s one poll. No he is not lol.

Trump currently up in Michigan

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/

Have these markets basically just become us flipping them for our preferred candidate?

@LiamRutherford *space shooting guy* always has been

@LiamRutherford Just because I'm holding YES on Trump doesn't mean I actually want him to win.