Resolves to party of the presidential candidate who wins the state of Pennsylvania in the 2024 US presidential election. Resolves after the AP calls the race.
1,000
3.00A partial defense of the "go to people's yards and check if they have signs for either candidate" is that it seems like the subsection of the electorate that is "people who vote based on who they think the winner will be" is 1) a significant part of the electorate (i.e. 5-10% at the lower end), 2) probably somewhat influenced by yard signs and by things like the recent huge Trump rally with Elon Musk (despite the fact that it brought out people from out state). This group is likely large enough to shift the election, especially with Pennsylvania being so close.
Of course, other things matter too, Trump's cognitive decline, the polls could be indicating the election is closer than it actually is, this group of people might not all think Trump would win, etc, etc.
@jBosc swinging 5-10% of voters would result in an automatic landslide for either candidate. i would be stunned if that group was even 0.5%. the vast majority of Americans thought Clinton would win and this didn't result in her picking up a bunch of soft voters.
ok I’ll self dox. I grew up in Pittsburgh (and currently live there) and I did my undergrad in Allentown. There’s definitely been a “vibe shift”, but not in the way people think. It used to be that no one would openly “admit” to supporting Trump. Now it’s not a taboo at all. It’s now like people saying they listen to Joe Rogan. Sure, some people might snivel, but it’s generally an extremely ordinary thing to say. It’s just a “meh” personal preference.
Yeah yeah it’s anecdotal whatever. I still feel way more strongly about Trump winning here than I did in 2016 or 2020.
@FoxKHTML I read your comment as saying that the polls now would be less biased than in previous elections... which actually counts in Harris's favor.
@GustavoLacerda this is a correct conclusion if the people answering polls overlap with the people they hang out with
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Nate Silver currently has Pennsylvania's odds at 55.6% Harris to 44.4% Trump, while The Economist has it at 51% Trump to 49% Harris.
538's polling average shows Harris leading 46.2% to Trump's 44.8%.
