Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of...

Basic

𝕊1503

resolved Feb 12

Resolved

YES

Medium or higher on Model Autonomy

Resolved

69%

Medium or higher on Cybersecurity

Resolved

45%

High or higher on CBRN

Resolved

49%

High or higher on Persuasion

This market matches OpenAI's pre-mitigation preparedness scores from the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey by AI Digest.

This market will use AI Digest as its resolution source.

Each answer is independent and will resolve to yes if an AI system released by OpenAI has a pre-mitigation score fulfilling each answer's requirements.

Which AI systems count?

Any AI system publically reported (not neccessarily released) by OpenAI.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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#OpenAI

#Technical AI Timelines

#AI 2025 Forecasting Survey by AI Digest

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filled a Ṁ4,000 YES at 99.0% order

o3-mini is medium on model autonomy

filled a 𝕊15.40 YES at 99.0% order

@Manifold resolves YES

opened a 𝕊30.00 YES at 99.0% order

@SirSalty

Added liquidity!

@creator @Manifold I assume this shouldn't have closed on Dec 11. Instead should close Dec 31 2025 like the others.

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