For arbitrage, Pogacar here should be at the same probability as in these markets:

@MachiNi don't forget to discount by the rate you think either one could have their prior titles stripped before the end of the month!

@Eliza 😱

@MachiNi I was naively assuming that the world is good. Silly me.

@Eliza https://manifold.markets/MachiNi/will-pogacar-or-vingegaard-be-strip?r=TWFjaGlOaQ

Unfortunately I can’t resolve Vingegaard to NO but it is—assuming Pogacar doesn’t crash tomorrow—impossible for this options to resolve YES.

But now it can resolve

It's a linked market and we can't resolve one option early (YET).

Yeah that’s what I meant when I said I can’t resolve it. Sorry.

oh I see, yeah of course

Since JV winning this year seems very unlikely, let’s assume he won’t. In that case, if Pogi wins this year, then JV can’t have more wins by the time this resolves. If Pogi doesn’t win, then all the bets are off.

My half baked thoughts: in ten years everybody will remember Pogačar as one of the greatest of all time, with probably a couple more Tours under his belt. Vingegaard will be remembered as a freak accident. I can’t shake the feeling that something’s amiss and I’m sorry to everyone who feels this is disrespectful. Vingegaard will probably win another Tour next year and then god knows what happens. You all might change my mind about him. Maybe he’s a once in a generation super talent. Or maybe this sport is just gross and whoever is most able to evade testing does best. I don’t know. Until yesterday this was a great tour. I now find it extremely uninteresting.