Will I live to be more than 1 billion years old?
Will I live to be more than 1 billion years old?
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A few hundred years, or a few hundred thousand years? Pffft... I seek to live on cosmological timescales!
Resolves as "Yes" if I live to see my 1 billionth birthday, else it will resolve no. The following will count towards a "Yes" and/or "Still Alive":
Digital and physical clones
Backup copies (via mind uploading, DNA storage)
Resurrection with future medical advances.
Cryogenic storage not resulting in information theoretic death.
Traveling on relativistic rockets close to the speed of light, or living close enough to a supermassive black hole, or experiencing other relativistic effects which will result in aging slower relative to Earth's reference frame.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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