The ICC currently has an arrest warrant against the Russian dictator Vladmir Putin. As a signatary of the Rome Statute, Brazilian authorities are required by Brazilian law to arrest the criminal.

Lula recently said that Putin wouldn't be arrested were he to choose to attend. The Brazilian president has no power whatsoever to make such promises.

This market resolves to the correct outcome when the 2024 summit happens in Rio de Janeiro.

If needed, I'll extend the conclusion date. I may bet on this market.

Any time in jail would count, even if Putin were to get a subsequent habeas corpus.