Will the ACF or another entity develop an American Chestnut that's immune to blight by end of 2024?
Will the ACF or another entity develop an American Chestnut that's immune to blight by end of 2024?
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Ṁ128Jan 2
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The American Chestnut Foundation has been working to develop an American Chestnut that can survive the ravages of the blight that mostly wiped them out over a century ago.
Market will resolve Yes if the ACF (or other entity) announces successful creation of such a cultivar with plans for release. This applies whether developed via transgenics or cross-breeding.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Did you mean by the start of 2024 or the end of 2024? On Manifold, people usually mean the start of 2024 if they say “by 2024”, but I’m guessing you meant by the end of 2024.
predictedYES 1y
@NicoDelon To be fair, they did just join the site! Not everything is obvious to a new user, but they’re still welcome here.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00