Update 2025-03-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Clarification:
The market will resolve by a poll after the next public meltdown by Elon Musk.
A qualifying meltdown must be public and captured on camera or recorded in media (excluding Twitter).
This determination will be based on the perception of it being a very public, unhinged meltdown.
Update 2025-03-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification to the 'Other' Option:
The Other option is defined as any point in time not covered by the other specific options.
Update 2025-03-23 (PST): - Meltdown Timing: The qualifying meltdown for 'He already did' must have occurred prior to market creation. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-06-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated the market will not be fully resolved after the first qualifying meltdown. Instead, the market will remain open until its close date in 2029.
If a qualifying meltdown occurs, it may trigger a partial resolution for that time period.
This allows for the possibility of multiple partial resolutions for different answers over the lifetime of the market.
Dear @traders, at the suggestion of @Quroe, I temporarily unlisted the market as the poll is underway to prevent market manipulation. However, that seems to have deleted all the comments. Would appreciate if @mods can work on this issue.
This is the poll in question:
https://manifold.markets/Lorelai/did-musks-early-june-implosion-coun
Update July 3: Market is listed again, will remain open for now.
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3.00@jim I temporarily saw your comment about hidden comments, but when I refreshed the page, it disappeared.
@Lorelai I would probably recommend temporarily closing (but not resolving) this market while we vote to prevent market manipulation.
@Quroe good point. I've temporarily set this Q as not publicly listed so only people with existing stakes in the market can view it
@LarsOsborne the other options aren't necessarily wrong. While there are definitely solid arguments that he already did, and I'm inclined to at least partially resolved first half of 2025 to "yes" (media referred to it as a meltdown), it would be unfair to traders who bet positively up until the year 2029 to resolve this market now; he may have further breakdowns which could warrant a partial positive resolution too, e.g. in 2027.
@Lorelai he’s already posting regrets about his previous posting behavior, I personally think that should be a strong signal for counting lol
@Lorelai so did it count or not?
A lot of people would count that as a meltdown. So if that doesn't count, what would?
would his Dave Chappelle meltdown have counted as a YES for this market?
@KJW_01294 the source for this is only this CNBC interview: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/11/07/elon-didnt-just-break-twitter-twitter-broke-elon-musk-says-breaking-twitter-author-ben-mezrich.html
Mezrich just said that Musk was "upset" and "shocked", and even this is probably exaggerated because he wants to sell his book.