Will I vote for a national-level Republican in my lifetime?
➕
Plus
29
Ṁ1317
2101
20%
chance

Resolves either when I place such a vote or die

This market is likely correlated with the OR of the following:

  • The Republican party essentially remade such that they aren't horribly discriminatory to at minimum groups I care about

  • I become one of those mythical detransitioners AND break up with my partner

  • The United States becomes a one-party state AND I still live there

  • I become so obscenely wealthy that it corrupts me

Presumably related

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bought Ṁ50 YES

Both people and parties change a lot over time. I used to be hardcore leftist and hate Rs with a burning passion, now I'd almost certainly vote R downballot and possibly for president, depending on how extreme the Dem ticket ends up being. I never would have expected that even 2-3 years ago.

I'm interested in what you think changed so much over the past 2-3 years to make your voting behavior this different. It seems to me that the last big change in the parties happened when Trump was elected.

It's possible that you'll have a JK Rowling situation where you're initially leftist, but the Overton Window shifts so far to the left that you are (relative to the youth) right wing.

Ex, trans rights becomes passe and even the GOP is on board. But the Dems have shifted so far left that they want lower to sexual age of consent to six.

I think the Republican Party is more likely to collapse entirely or splinter into multiple parties (in which case this presumably resolves NO eventually) than it is to suddenly shift its platform to the left. The Republicans have consistently been the more conservative party since at least 1932 (arguably earlier.) This would be like the Tories and Labour switching party platforms, at this point.

@evergreenemily I don't think it would suddenly shift its platform to the left, but I imagine that the parties' platforms will change over time to eventually become unrecognizable. After all, both parties are already unrecognizable compared to what they started as, and they have switched places in certain areas like racial issues. The question is how soon this will occur: Will the Republican Party become so unrecognizable compared to what it is today that its politics would be tolerable within Olivia's lifetime?

I think this is underestimating the incredible variance in politics in a fairly short time, even moreso now than ever in history.

Lives are very long. The parties today stand for different things than they stood for in 1900, why expect them to stand for the same things they do now in 2100?

predictedNO

@BuyNakSellDoof I don't! Not fully at least. But honestly I think the party will dissolve before it changes at this point. I don't see how a reversal could happen like it did last century

>trans flag

No lol

@Gnossia that's literally what the description says lol

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