When will Blue Origin reach orbit? | Manifold

When will Blue Origin reach orbit?

Basic

10

Ṁ225

2101

2025

expected

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Will resolve when Blue Origin has a successful orbital flight and return to Earth (even if the landing system is not perfect). If Blue Origin dissolves, or stops trying, or etc. this market will resolve to MAX, so if you want to bet NO, that is the same as HIGHER

If not resolving to MAX, market will resolve to YEAR + ((DAY - 1) / length(YEAR))

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In future markets like this, are these bounds appropriate? And should it be in log or linear scale? Comment your thoughts below

@LivInTheLookingGlass The bounds are way too big, which makes it not worth it to adjust it by a year up or down: big investment for almost no payoff. For a market like this I would have made it 2022—2027, and if it's later than that it would resolve to 2027.

But in general binary yes/no markets tend to work better in my experience

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Related questions

Will Blue Origin land on the moon before July 4th, 2025?

What will be the name of the third Blue Origin rocket?

Will Blue Origin ever be worth more than SpaceX before 2040?

When will Starship reach orbit?

Will Blue Origin's first Blue Moon HLS mission successfully land on the moon?

Before which Starship flight will SpaceX first announce they will *attempt* at least one orbit?

Will the first successful Artemis crewed lunar landing be done using a Blue Origin lander?

Will Starship land on the moon before Blue Origin does?

By which Flight of Starship will it reach orbit?

Which of these rockets will reach orbit in 2025?

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