Will the record for the largest known Mersenne prime be broken by the end of 2024?
Basic
13
Ṁ2754Jan 1
99.8%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Similar to https://manifold.markets/LinusTang/will-the-record-for-the-largest-kno
A Mersenne prime is a prime number that can be expressed as 2^n-1 for some positive integer n. The largest known Mersenne prime as of 11/18/23 is 2^82,589,933 − 1. This record was set in December 2018.
Reputable sources must agree by 12/31/2024 that the number has been proven to be prime, and proofs assisted by computer computations are, of course, allowed.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
Related questions
Related questions
Will a non-Mersenne prime become the largest known prime at some point before 2030-01-01?
40% chance
Will the largest known prime number be non-Mersenne before 2030?
37% chance
Will there be a new largest known prime number by the end of 2025? (Last one - Oct 21 2024)
29% chance
Will someone beat the 3x3x3 Rubiks Cube world record by the end of 2024?
10% chance
Will humans say the largest prime number before we find the next one?
28% chance
Will a blank-slate AI prove the infinitude of primes by 2025-11-03?
33% chance
Who will hold the Minecraft speedrunning world record by the end of 2024 (random seed)
By the end of 2043, will the world record for oldest living person ever be beaten by 5 years?
35% chance
Will there be a new record setting bounty announced in One Piece by the end of 2024? (5.5648M Berries)
66% chance
Will someone break the record for longest human lifespan by EOY 2035? (122 years 164 days)
53% chance