Will the global financial/economic system experience a shock like 2008 in the next 5 years? | Manifold

Will the global financial/economic system experience a shock like 2008 in the next 5 years?

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6

Ṁ100

2028

38%

chance

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1W

1M

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Its hard to quantify this exactly. At least according to this article the (mid-term) damage in global economic growth was about 2 trillion USD (https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/a-guide-to-the-financial-crisis--10-years-later/2018/09/10/114b76ba-af10-11e8-a20b-5f4f84429666_story.html). Anything reasonable near that number counts. If you have better ideas to measure this, comment below.

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Does a “shock” include both positive and negative financial events? Would GDP growth far above current forecasts be considered a “shock?”

@AdamK My guess its impossible for a positive shock to generate 2 trillion USD in economic growth damage. Technically the question is "like 2008", so I wont change it now. A shock far exceeding 2 trillion USD does not count.

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