What will happen first

Plus

Ṁ1926

2034

34%

A nuke (of any size) will be detonated above ground in a test orchestrated by humans.

30%

A nuke (of any size) will be detonated in a conflict or as an act of terror by humans.

18%

An AI accident or malevolent act causes a nuke to detonate.

17%

A nuclear missile is decommissioned in order for its fissile material to be used to power a nuclear power plant that provides power to an AI datacenter.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#What Will Happen Markets

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@strutheo check out the hashtags for this market.

Total probabilities should add up to at most 100% (less if everything resolves to NO if none has happened on the scheduled close date)

They're currently at 169% (nice).

bought Ṁ150 NO

Only one option can resolve yes, right?

@TheAllMemeingEye Only one option can resolve yes.

bought Ṁ50 NO

@LesterCrafton thanks :)

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