Which space agencies or private companies will successfully land humans on Mars by 2030?๐
Which space agencies or private companies will successfully land humans on Mars by 2030?๐
Plus
25
แน40112031
13%
SpaceX
9%
NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration)
3%
CNSA (China National Space Administration)
2%
ESA (European Space Agency)
2%
Blue Origin
1.4%
Boeing
The question will resolve as "YES" for each space agency or private company that successfully lands humans on Mars before the end of 2030.
If multiple agencies or companies achieve this independently or through a collaboration, each will be resolved as "YES" individually.
The successful landing is defined by a human crew safely reaching the surface of Mars and conducting at least one extravehicular activity (EVA) or surface operation.
The resolution will be based on official announcements and confirmations from the respective agencies or credible space exploration authorities.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEightโs performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 โ $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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