Well, I have a rock with the words “WWIII IS NOT STARTING ” on it...

@Forrest Has it been right before?

Indeed - in my experience, WWIII frequently doesn't start. Probably that's why someone wrote a rock about it.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/12/world/europe/mideast-war-israel-yemen.html

Starting to feel increasingly foolish telling myself we're not in the prelude to WW3...

https://manifold.markets/dashboard/ww3

WW3?

Probably/hopefully very unlikely, but if WW3 would happen pre-singularity I think it could look very similar to now. With the war in the Ukraine, the situation in Gaza, the tensions around Taiwan, and the perceived weakness of the US, this seems like the most dangerous time for the world since the end of the cold war. I'm trying to collect questions here that would best signal moves to increased or decreased risk of WW3. (@Manifold: It would be nice to have a comment section and/or direct messages so that people could suggest good questions.)

U.S. official says Russian missiles hit Poland, killing two people!

@Simon805b Fuck this shit, it was Ukrain who launched the missiles

@brp Why would that be the case? The idea that WWIII would be a huge nuclear holocaust is overblown. As we can see in Ukraine already, nuclear bombs are so ridiculously powerful that they are useless as weapons of war. Every time the US sends more advanced tanks and missiles, Putin rants and raves about blowing up the world, but realizes that all his nukes are completely useless.

Even if Biden or Putin were to give the order to destroy the world, I don't believe that the frontline solder would press the button. I even wonder if they would retaliate, because there would be no point in doing so.

There would certainly be enormous destruction and loss of life, but WWIII would look exactly like Ukraine - a regression to WWI, with remote drones, missile strikes, and AI robot warriors, with static frontlines heavily favoring the defender.