Will China declare war on another country by 2030?
Will China declare war on another country by 2030?
Plus
23
Ṁ8772030
25%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if:
China makes a declaration of war by 2030.
Resolves NO if:
China doesn't make a declaration of war by 2030.
If for some reason China invades without declaring war, I will still resolve NO to remove ambiguity.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
38% chance
Will China fight a major land war by 2035?
30% chance
[Metaculus] Will China launch a military invasion of any country other than Taiwan before 2030?
6% chance
Will there be an armed conflict between China and the US before the end of 2030?
23% chance
Will China invade Taiwan before 2030?
33% chance
Will any of the following western countries go to war with each other before 2030?
8% chance
Will India and China go to war before 2026?
6% chance
Will China launch a war on the US by 2028?
19% chance
Will China invade Vietnam before 2030?
18% chance
Will China turn on Russia before 2030?
19% chance