https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir–Simpson_scale

The Saffir-Simpson scale separates tropical storm intensity through levels of sustained wind speed, and historically, major hurricanes - and for that matter, tropical storms in general - rarely form in June or July, the early months of the Atlantic Hurricane season.

Due to the shifts in weather patterns that are evident in the recent outbreaks of tornado-producing storm systems across the southern United States, I’m setting up a market to capture whether or not a major hurricane will form in the Atlantic Ocean this year prior to the peak months of August and September.

Conditions for YES:

• A named tropical storm in the Atlantic basin achieves Category 3 strength. The minimum amount of time required is the same as the scale’s requirements for measuring sustained wind speed: one minute.

• This event is reported by either NOAA, or, in the event of NOAA no longer reporting on tropical storms via its National Hurricane Center website, an agreed upon and trusted media source with a reliable record of providing accurate hurricane coverage.

Resolves NO otherwise.