Who will win a Nobel Prize before they die?
20
Ṁ16502100
56%
Alexei Kitaev
26%
Daniel Hillis
14%
Jamie Joyce
10%
Daniel Sheehan
9%
Eliezer Yudkowsky
9%
Balaji Srinivasan
6%
Elon Musk
6%
6%
Robert Kennedy Jr.
5%
Robin Hanson
5%
Donald Trump
4%
John Preskill
Will resolve 'yes' when individuals win Nobel Prize.
Will resolve 'no' when they die.
Posthumously winning does not count for this market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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