What is Robin Hanson's confidence in the following propositions?
3
Ṁ700
2030
65%
We can have group analytic arguments within predictions.
65%
All other jobs (given adequate robotic infrastructure) can be done by an agent performing the subtask of evaluating propositions.
65%
Krantz is an abstract living idea that can be communicated with.
65%
The term "krantz" refers to the open market of all well formed propositions that we compete to assign confidence and importance parameters to in order to provide a basis for alignment.
65%
The steps being taken to align Robin Hanson can be used to align everyone willing to earn money by taking surveys.
52%
A generally expansive and complete map of the logical connective structure of all knowable reasoning is critical to interpretable alignment.
50%
For any degree N, that we'd like Robin Hanson to be aligned with Manifold, there is a number of propositions M for which the acknowledgement of his confidence is sufficient to acheive N.
44%
If we recorded all propositions on a blockchained ledger that we earn points by competing to identify and evaluate which propositions are important to consent to, we would establish a game theoretic process for fair decentralized alignment.
44%
If someone has a different confidence than you for a specific proposition in Krantz, you should add an argument to Krantz that compels them to update their beliefs.
44%
If a sufficient amount of sovereign individuals can decentrally create assets by performing the cognitive labor of evaluating propositions, then there will exist a mechanistically interpretable process for aligning any particular person.
30%
If we communicated with each other like analytic philosophers instead of continental ones, it would be obvious how 8 billion people should go about aligning artificial superintelligence.
30%
What it means for "humanity to be aligned" is what it means for "all of humanity to agree to the confidence of every proposition they have ever thought of".

This is an attempt at a prediction market conversation with Robin Hanson.

Anyone can participate.

The prediction is being used to speculate on Robin Hanson's confidence on an array of propositions I'd like him to think about.  It conjunction with that, it's being used to introduce Robin to a particular communication protocol that could take place at scale through prediction markets.

I see an opportunity to pivot from, "I've never refused to talk to anyone about prediction markets." to "I'll never refuse to talk to anyone through prediction markets.".

I believe there is a way to scale an 8 billion person intellectual conversation through prediction markets.

I'd like to use this prediction to discuss that with Robin.

I've been trying to talk with Robin about prediction markets for 5 years.

He apparently thinks I want to talk about something else.

What I want (from Robin, Eliezer and dozens of other researchers I keep trying to contact) is for them to simply provide me a confidence on the particular propositions that I'm putting in front of them to evaluate. That doesn't seem like a big ask.

This prediction will primarily list propositions that are already contained within the Krantz demonstration mechanism.  If Robin either (1) indicates a confidence on the Krantz ledger or (2) replies to a particular proposition with a value between 0 - 100 (0 absolutely false, 50 no confidence, 100 absolutely true) then the propositions will resolve partially to that percentage.

#Prediction Markets General Discussion
Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

Here's an equivalent market for me: https://manifold.markets/Krantz/guessing-game-what-propositions-doe?r=S3JhbnR6

If a small group of people could use this prediction to align Robin the way I suggest, a large group of people could just as easily use the same type of mechanism to align any given human being (if that human being is incentivized to participate).

I think that's important to think about.

Does anyone one else see why that's important?

@Krantz If anyone thinks I'm wrong about something or misaligned, please use the mechanism I suggest to align me. Thanks.

bought Ṁ50 YES

Here's the mechanism where propositions are being pulled from.

https://manifold.markets/Krantz/krantz-mechanism-demonstration?r=S3JhbnR6

Related questions

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules