Will the propellantless thruster by IVO Quantum Drive on Barry-1 be reported to work?
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Barry-1 satellite failed before activation of the drives. Lost communication a few weeks ago, toward the end of the 60 day setting up a baseline.

@brianwang does IVO have money to try again?

@robm Seems like they're going to get space on another satellite.

https://rogue.space/suspension_of_barry1_operations

@KevinKwok Whose reports are relevant to market resolution?

predictedYES

The CEO of IVO tweeted out a thread of details a couple of months ago which I found and compiled.

the Barry-1 has two quantum drives that are weaker than the best lab result. [I assume more reliable and robust for space launch).

0.25 and 0.65 millinewtons.

But designed to thrust in the same direction. If both work then 3X the weakest drive. thus different results if one or both are working. Drive A only 0.25, Drive B only .=0.65 and both is 0.9. Neither works is 0. Obviously, the most likely result is 0.

If there is an additive thrust effect then making say 1000 drive Bs would be 65 newtons of thrust.

https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2024/01/ivo-tests-adding-the-thrust-from-multiple-quantum-drives.html

The engineering specs and other aspects of the device would have to be revealed to SpaceX the launch provider. No one launches a black box experiment that might be dangerous.

IF it works DARPA and SpaceX would be interested as customers, so they would need to know that it works and is not a fraud.

I spoke with Mike McCulloch who came up with Quantized Inertia for propulsion. He is advising IVO and working with two other groups looking to put QI drives into space. One is a NASA related group. DARPA is working on their own after finishing a five year study with Mike, DARPA Otter program will have $17.4 million in 2024 alone. I have researched the specifics of the drives. Currently, the success has been with two metal plates sandwiching di-electric.

I wrote up my discussions with Mike and the key papers. The effect needs to have electron tunneling all at once through the dielectric.

https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2024/01/ivo-nasa-darpa-and-another-group-are-all-working-to-test-quantum-drives-in-space.html

predictedNO

@brianwang a few years back, McCulloch seemed to struggle with experimental work. Do you think he's made up that gap, or is a team better off with him doing theory and someone else leading experiments?

@robm He is working with 2-3 teams. IVO seems to have the best team .McCulloch is advising IVO. IVO will probably end up getting the DARPA $17.4 M. Teams are better with him doing theory.

I'm conflicted on this one. I think QI is really promising, but for new physics the base rate is <<1%.

I've got a limit order in at 1% for some fun.

I was willing to bet it down from 37. No matter what I think is rational, my gut feeling isn't letting me bet it down past 25.

Schematics of what they probably did.

The methods used include firing lasers into asymmetric metal cavities ORlasers into fiber-optic flouride glass loops shielded by metal on one side, high-acceleration electrons in capacitors, and other methods.

I think they are using fiber optic loops because of better results from researchers in Spain.

https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2024/01/here-is-how-ivo-quantized-inertia-drive-cubesat-works-and-a-follow-up-interstellar-probe-design.html

predictedYES

@brianwang spoke with McCulloch and IVO and the others are using cavity capacitor approaches with variations on the dielectric and plate materials and other aspects

When are results expected?

@robm NORAD is tracking the Barry-1 satellite with the drive.

https://www.n2yo.com/?s=58338&live=1

IF it starts to get faster than 4.72 miles per second, then that would be the drive working.

I think 1-6 months to find out. If they do not turn it on for 1 month, then a strong conclusive result should be 1 month of operation if the effect is as expected. IF the effect is real but 10% of expectation then it could take 2-3 months. If the effect is real but marginal then 4-6 months and a follow up would be needed. Follow up could be needed anyway. I would say IF it gets to 4.8 miles per second or raises altitude by 10 miles or so then we are in business. Definitely 100 miles altitiude raise or a 5 mile per second speed.

@brianwang It would have to deviate from the Newtonian forecasted orbits.

https://www.n2yo.com/passes/?s=58338

I worry that they post a PR fluff, reporting some minor success to request more money.

I will take a long shot that it works because then in a few months and the world changes, I would have this little bet for posterity. If it does not work, then no big deal. The work seems reasonable for what could be so insanely huge.

I researched the video presentations on Quantized inertia. I had forgotten that this was DARPA funded. DARPA wants to cut to the chase and see if it works in orbit or not. All the tests down here have had the doubters. If it works up there then boom 1000 times better than Hall Effect thruster. 52 millinewtons per watt instead of 60 millinewtons per kilowatt. We rapidly head to Expanse TV propulsion tech plus nanocavities would be like antigravity but via propellentless propulsion.

https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2024/01/darpa-partially-funded-quantum-space-drive-orbital-test.html

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