How will Donald Trump die? (Before age 100)

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Ṁ2317

2046

23%

Any unambiguously homicidal injury (e.g. assassination by gunshot, polonium poisoning), but not including war, riot, coup, etc.

19%

Heart attack or other cardiac condition

18%

Cancer

11%

Any unambiguously accidental injury (e.g. slip and fall in public)

Dementia, stroke, or other non-infectious brain condition

Suicide or "apparent" suicide (e.g. Epstein would count)

Explosive diarrhea

Other

(None; still alive at age 100)

Act of war, civil war, riot, coup, violent political unrest, martial law, etc.

1.7%

Infection, sepsis, or other microbial condition

1.7%

Judicially-imposed death penalty (martial law doesn't count)

1.6%

Any "plausibly deniable" injury by infamous means (e.g. falling out a window like a Russian oligarch)

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Trump Assassination Attempt

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@KarlK For his age, Trump is extremely healthy. Put the memes aside — he regularly exercises (golf), travels (a lot of moving from place to place, not sitting on the couch), and stands for long periods of time (press conferences, rallies). His family has no history of cardiac conditions. His father lived to be 93; his mother 88. Both died of a sudden illness that their immune systems just couldn’t handle anymore. BTW - same way his brother died.

An actual doctor would probably put the odds of cardiac failure of close to none.

@FoxKHTML If you think he'll live longer than 100, there's an option for that.

@KarlK Nah I mean he’ll probably die of some random illness in 10 years. Just not cardiac related

@FoxKHTML So can I sell you an "infection, sepsis, or other microbial condition"?

@KarlK No, this is a sick market

bought Ṁ5 YES

Would a car crash count as unambiguously accidental or other?

@TheAllMemeingEye Depends on the crash; some are deliberate. (Fictional example: Thelma & Louise.)

@KarlK does it count as unambiguously accidental if there's no real evidence that it was intentional but all his supporters keep pushing a conspiracy theory claiming it was an orchestrated assassination attempt?

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