There has to be a public handhake or signing of documents involving both sides. An understanding without formal gestures is not enough for the clock to start ticking on the two years. If Ukraine hasn't joined OTAN/NATO, resurgence of violence against it will count as an attack on a non OTAN country.

An attack must consist of regular armed forces troops upon a country with a shared border with Russia, formal declaration of war is not necessary. Little green men if they are clearly without insignia do not trigger the market. If the Wagner group or other organized quasi military strictly hierarchic actor is considered by Wikipedia at the time to be under Russias defense ministry or for instance GRU or other equivalent actors they will trigger a YES resolution if within the two years.

Market will be extended as necessary, and resolved when Russia attacks as forementioned or the two years is up.

I will initially add 180 liquidity above the basic 100. Unsure if I will bet but not at least until Trump's first 100 days. May update if I want to stay out to be able to resolve impartially based on whether people in the comments think description is ambiguous.

UPDATE: Upon consideration, I definitely will not be trading on this market, to maintain my impartiality and the appearance of my impartiality.