There has been a lot of Twitter discourse recently — mostly from Nate Silver — about misinformation, trusting the science, the validity of prediction markets versus expert consensus, and the epistemological approach to determining whether COVID-19 leaked from a lab.

Sometimes I join twitter discourse by writing a satirical tweet. I plan on doing that for this particular topic.

So, let’s see what prediction markets think about the odds that I exceed 150 likes with one of these tweets.

This question resolves yes if I (@mealreplacer) post a tweet between January 14th 2024 and July 14th 2024 (inclusive) satirizing this topic, that gets more than 150 likes.