Background

The UK's nuclear deterrent relies heavily on US-supplied Trident ballistic missiles through the 1958 Mutual Defence Agreement (MDA). Unlike conventional weapons, the UK does not own these missiles outright but instead has title to a portion of a shared pool with the US Navy. This cooperation has been a cornerstone of US-UK defense relations for over 60 years.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES if Donald Trump makes statements before 2029 that I, a reasonable centre-left British observer who will not bet, understand to contain an explicit or implicit threat to restrict British access to Trident missiles.

Some examples of implicit threats:

"Wouldn't it be a pity if.."

"If my nuclear weapons were dependent on American missiles, I wouldn't..."

"I don't know why we are giving them our missiles"

These are just examples. I invite bettors to ask questions to test their assumptions about how I perceive this, but I will be applying a "you know it when you see it test".